East Africa Resource Conflict

Prior to 2006, over 60 years of failed oil exploration efforts made local communities in the Horn of Africa (HOA) countries fertile ground for the growth of myths about local oil riches. Stories abounded of giant oil discoveries secretly capped for future production or otherwise kept hidden by conspiracies between companies and foreign powers, particularly Saudi Arabia.

This myth first flourished in the 1970s and persisted into the 1990s, albeit evolving variously to accommodate the changing political landscape.  Today, courtesy of the Kenya and Uganda discoveries, the predominant myth views the entire HOA as a proven oil province, with vast deposits of oil and gas everywhere. This myth has emerged rapidly in the past decade and is heard alike from the general public and the highest government officials. 

These myths about giant oilfields, whether hidden in the past or certain to be found in the future, underwrite serious local and regional conflict in the HOA, to the point of armed warfare, such as in the Ethiopian Ogaden region and the Nugal Valley in Somalia. Where oil has been discovered, there is social discord over income-sharing between local and national communities, and nearby international border disputes have been sharpened. 

My paper in the Horn of Africa Bulletin discusses some of the causes and content of the main myths about oil discoveries in the HOA and their role in driving expectations and conflict. An article in the Petroleum Exploration Society of Australia newsletter focuses on the influence of over-optimistic announcement by companies.  Presentations to the Geological Society of London in 2012 and the American Association of Petroleum Geologists in 2014 are focused on the history of exploration in East Africa but also discuss the resource conflict.

Attachments

East Africa Oil Myths_PESA Oct 2013 — 898 KB PDF File Download
Oil Myths Drive Conflict, HAB, 4, 2014 — 340.5 KB PDF File Download